I am also against this, in too many cases determining the “hot” URL is far too troublesome to be worthwhile for the guidelines.
- In many cases, the direct links are CDN URLs, which means they are significantly less stable than download pages (which the site operators have an interest in keeping as stable as possible).
- Direct URLs like this probably do not get archived as well, the download page would probably be preserved (even if not functional), but the direct link will be skipped by all but the most aggressive crawlers.